Godard 21's Cinephile journal

Friday, December 15, 2006

Oscar Predictions

Here are my Oscar predictions for its major categories (which, in my opinion, incorporates many). I may edit them and change some of my picks as the awards approach.

Best Picture
-Letters from Iowa Jima
-The Departed
-The Queen
-Dream Girls
-Little Children

Other potential contenders:
-United 93 (very possible for a nomination, may steal it from Little Children)
-Little Miss Sunshine
-Babel (if they can't think of anything else)
-Half Nelson (very unlikely, but, like Little Miss Sunshine, it is an indie favourite)
- Volver (wishful thinking here)
Best Actor
-Peter O'Toole (Venus)
-Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson)
-Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland. Lock and Frontrunner)
-Leonardo Dicaprio (Blood Diamond or The Departed, most likely the latter)
-Ken Watanabe (Letters of Iowa Jima, possible, but unlikely)

Other possible contenders:
-Patrick Wildon-Little Children (very unlikely)
-Will Smith (The pursuit of Happyness. His perfomance has received been called the sole redeeming feature of a rather conventional film)

Best Actress
-Helen Mirren (The Queen. Lock and frontrunner)
-Penelope Cruz (Volver)
-Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal. Who doesn't like Judi Dench)
-Kate Winslet (Little Children)
-Meryl Streep (The Devil wears Prada. Supposedly quite good in it)

Other contenders
Maggie Gyllenhal (Sherrybaby)
Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal)

Best Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt (Babel. Does not deserve it, but he may be nominated)
Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond)
Michael Sheen (The Queen. Don't he deserves it, but may be nominated regardless)
Eddie Murphy (dream girls. Just because I think the Academy is crazy)
Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children)

Other contenders.
Jack Nicholson (The Departed. Very possible)
Mark Walhberg (The Departed)
Ben Affleck (Hollywoodland. Again, the Academy is crazy and occasionally chooses a very undeserving performance. Chances are slim though).
Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine. For some reason, websites have been predicting him and I have no idea why. His role as a drug addicted grandfather was rather caricaturish)
Adam Beach (Flags of our Fathers. Others have predicted him, but I doubt it)

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls. Pretty much a lock now)
Rinko Kikuchi (Babel. Oddly, this one is almost a lock also and deserving too)
Adriana Barraza (Babel. The Academy may choose only one actress to represent Babel, but a double nomination is possible)
Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal)
Shareeka Epps (Half Nelson. This is a longshot/ dark horse nomination, but she could make it)

Other contenders
Catherine O'Hara (For your Consideration, which film pix is bringing to Saint John on Jan 9th. Very possible nomination).
Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine. Oddly, a few critics and websites have mentioned a possible nomination)
Sharon Stone (Bobby)

Best Director
Martin Scorsese (The Departed. Lock)
Bill Condon (Dreamgirls)
Clint Eastwood (Letters from Iowa Jima)
Stephen Frears (The Queen)
Pedro Almodovar (Volver. He would be the academy's critical choice and he has been nominated before, so do not count him out)

Other contenders
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Babel. He may be nominated, but I still think Amorres Perros was a much better film.)
Paul Greengrass (United 93)
Robert Altman (Prairie Home Companion. Possibly in order to honour him with an award, although last year he received the lifetime achievement award, so very unlikely)
Ryan Fleck (Half Nelson. Wishful thinking on my part)
Valerie Faris/ J. Dayton (Little Miss Sunshine. Highly doubt it, but others have placed them amongst their predictions).
Other c

Best Foreign Film
Volver (Spain)
The Lives of Others (Germany)
Pan's Labyrinth (Mexico)
Water (Canada)
Curse of the Golden Flower (China)

Other contenders
Indigenes (Algeria)
Reprise (Norway. Unlikely)
Aurora - Bulgaria (doubt it)

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Departed - William Monahan (adapted from Siu Fai Mak's excellent Hong Kong police drama Infernal Affairs)
Little Children (Todd Field, Tom Perreta)
Notes on a Scandal (Patrick Marber, unlikely, but possible)
Dreamgirls (Bill Condon)
Letters from Iowa Jima (Iris Yamashita. Could be considered "adapted")

Other contenders
Flags of our Fathers (William Broyles, Jr., Paul Haggis)
Children of Men



Best Original Screenplay
Little Miss Sunshine (Michael Arndt)
Letters from Iowa Jima (Iris Yamashita. This film will be difficult for the Academy to categorize since it is loosely influenced by the Japanese book "Picture Letters from Commander in Chief," but still could be considered an original screenplay)
Volver (Pedro Almodovar)
The Queen (Peter Morgan)
Babel (Guillermo Arriaga. Possible nomination, but Greengrass may get his slot)

Other contenders
United 93 (Paul Greengrass. Very Possible)
Stranger than Fiction (Zach Helm, very unlikely, but possible)
Half Nelson (wishful thinking)

Best Documentary
An Inconvenient Truth
Deliver us From Evil (Amy Berg)
Jesus Camp
The Ground Truth
Iraq in Fragments

Other contenders
Blindsight (Lucy Walker)

Best Animated film
Cars
Happy Feet
Flushed Away
Over the Hedge
Monster House

Other contenders
A Scanner Darkly (doubt it, but would be interesting).
Paprika (by director Satoshi Kon. No chance in hell, but I wish the Academy had the taste to nominate it. Alas, they don't and never did)

Best Cinematography
Pan's Labyrinth
Children of Men (Emmanuel Lubezki is a favourite, so he will probably be nominated)
Curse of the Golden Flower
Dreamgirls
The Departed (odd choice, but it may just make it for unknown reasons)

Other contenders
Babel (Rodrigo Prieto was a nominee last year for Brokeback Mountain and the cinematograpy in the Tokyo scenes alone are deserving of a nomination)
The Fountain (Very unlikely since the film was a disappointment, but the cinematography was notable)


Best Art Direction
Pan's Labyrinth
The Prestige
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette
The Good German (despite dismal reviews, I hear the art direction is fine)

Other contenders
The Fountain (again, mediocre movie, good art direction. This year's Memoirs of a Geisha, except, realistically, it probably won't be nominated for a thing)

Visual effects
The Fountain
Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man's chest
The Prestige
Superman (I am grasping here)
Pan's Labyrinth (maybe).

Costume design
Marie Antoinette (lock)
Dreamgirls
-
-
-
(will decide these remaining slots later, although costume design usually only has a minimal amount of nominations)

Best Score
Babel-Gustavo Santaolalla (Last year's winner for Brokeback Mountain. Potential nominee for this year)
The Fountain-Clint Mansell (I hope he is nominated considering the film's score was one of its few truly redeeming traits)
The Queen/ The Painted Veil - Alexandre Desplat (will probably get nominated, but for which film?)
The Departed - Howard Shore (I don't think he deserves it, but he may be nominated)
The Good German/Little Children - Thomas Newman
- (undecided)

Other Contenders
The Illusionist -Philipp Glass
Letters from Iowa Jima/ Flags of our Fathers - Clint Eastwood
Nomad - Carlo Siliotto (newcomer nominated for a Golden Globe)

Will update late (changing certain choices while adding remaining slots)

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